Jesus knew better. He understood Peter better than Peter understood himself. He could see Peter’s weakness even though Peter could not. So Jesus said, “Truly, I say to you, this very night, before the cock crows, you will deny Me three times.” It was not an accusation; Jesus was not angry. It was simply a statement of fact.
Peter refused to believe it. “Even if I must die with You, I will not deny You,” he firmly maintained. And he meant it. He really was sincere. But he was also overconfident. He did not realize what would face him that night. He did not comprehend the fear and the horror. He did not know himself well enough to properly predict how he would respond.
But Jesus did. And Peter learned a tough lesson about himself. He did indeed deny Jesus three times that very night, just as Jesus had predicted. But Peter repented. He learned humility through his fall, and he discovered the risks of overconfidence. He also experienced Jesus’ great mercy and forgiveness, and all of this helped him as he assumed his role as leader of the infant Church.